Key Findings: Perceptions of economic conditions have significantly deteriorated since 2011. Trust in the government and parliament are low, but Tunisians have far more confidence in the security services and the judiciary. Nearly all Tunisians say corruption remains rampant, while fewer than half believe the government is taking steps to address the problem. Desire to emigrate is high and growing,…
Political Institutions
In 2011, Egyptians quickly tired of protest. Here’s why that matters for Sudan and Algeria.
….. Public disillusionment with democracy We examined how mobilization in Egypt affected political attitudes after the fall of Mubarak by using local newspaper reporting to map protests, and matching this with data from the Arab Barometer survey. Our findings suggest that within five months of Mubarak’s ouster, Egyptians living in high-protest areas were more likely to associate democracy with socioeconomic…
Party competition in the Middle East: spatial competition in the post-Arab Spring era
This paper charts the nature of political cleavage between major parties in post-Arab Spring elections in five Mediterranean region countries, with data from online opt-in surveys. We compare the Moroccan elections, held under a consolidated authoritarian regime, with the transitional cases of Tunisia and Egypt as well as the more mature democracies of Turkey and Israel. Voter opinions are obtained…
Kinship, partisanship, and patronage in Arab elections
This article examines the connection between kinship, partisanship, and patronage voting in Arab world elections. It argues that tribes and extended families enjoy structural advantages that reduce transaction costs in patron–client exchanges, making kinship voting a pragmatic strategy in clientelistic vote markets with weak parties. Using data from seven Arab countries, it demonstrates that patronage oriented voters place greater weight on candidates’ kinship affiliations and deemphasize other…
Beyond elections: perceptions of democracy in four Arab countries
This article draws on public opinion survey data from Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt, and Jordan to investigate first, whether a “demand for democracy” in the region exists; second, how to measure it; and third, how respondents understand it. The picture emerging from this analysis is complex, eluding the simple dichotomy between prima facie support and second order incongruence with democracy, which characterises current…
Revisiting the Islamist–Secular divide: Parties and voters in the Arab world
Electoral politics in the Arab world are either portrayed as clientelistic affairs void of content or as highly ideological clashes between Islamist and Secular Left forces. Although both arguments are intuitively appealing, the empirical evidence to date is limited. This article seeks to contribute to the debate by investigating the extent of programmatic voter support for Islamist and Secular Left…
Tunisian Politics Splinters as Presidential Election Approaches
A wide range of candidates reflects the country’s increasingly fluid political situation as it tries to consolidate the democratic gains of 2011. After close to 100 candidate applications, Tunisia’s presidential election on 15 September will feature 27 confirmed candidates, reflecting the country’s fluid political situation and an ongoing split between traditional parties and alliances and enduring anti-establishment populism. The election…
A revealing survey that rings alarm bells
What is happening across the board is that populations are losing much of their trust in political and religious elites. Analysts have been scratching their heads over the results of a recent opinion survey on social, political and religious attitudes in the Arab world conducted by Arab Barometer, a Princeton University-based research network, and released by BBC News Arabic. Much…