And How Their Views Might Shape the Next Phase of Conflict in the Middle East
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently declared that as his country’s military operations in Gaza wind down, Israel will turn its attention to its foe to the north: the Lebanese Shiite group Hezbollah. The two parties have a long history of conflict rooted in Israel’s invasion of Lebanon in 1982, its occupation of the southern portion of the country from 1985 to 2000, and a full-scale war the two sides fought in 2006. In recent years, Israel and Hezbollah have been carrying out low-scale cross-border attacks, but the frequency and scale of these increased following Hamas’s horrific attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, and the subsequent Israeli military campaign in Gaza. In recent weeks, concerns have grown that another major war between the two parties could break out.
If it did, such a war would take place in a country that is already on the brink. Ever since experiencing a near-total collapse of Lebanon’s economy in 2019, ordinary Lebanese have faced immense challenges. The depth of their despair is clear from the results of a nationally representative survey that our organization, Arab Barometer, carried out between February and April 2024, which encompassed all areas of the country, including both urban and rural locations, and covered all the major sectarian communities.
Historically, Lebanon was one of the Arab region’s more affluent and developed non-oil-producing countries. But conditions there have deteriorated considerably, especially in recent years, fueling intense frustration and anger among ordinary Lebanese of all sects. Around 80 percent of citizens say the availability and the affordability of food is currently a problem. Sixty-eight percent reported sometimes or often running out of food before they could afford to buy more in the last month. Among the seven predominantly Arab countries where we have conducted surveys since September 2023, Lebanese respondents reported by far the lowest satisfaction in the region with the provision of water, electricity, Internet access, and health care. Lebanese respondents were also the most likely to say they have experienced weekly electricity outages: 92 percent did so, which is 43 points above the next-worst performer, the Palestinian territories, which were surveyed just prior to October 7. The same was true of weekly water shortages, which 65 percent of Lebanese respondents reported—17 points above the next-worst performer (again, the Palestinian territories)…
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