Since 2006, Arab Barometer has been tracking migration attitudes in the MENA region. The latest, eighth wave of surveys (2023-2024) indicates that migration remains a significant concern, with many citizens seeking better opportunities abroad. The recent report by Arab Barometer’s policy outreach manager, Mohamed Abufalgha, highlights persistent and varied migration aspirations across the region.
*Note: Data from Palestine were collected between September 28 and October 6, before the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel, which may affect current views.
Here are some of the key insights:
- Variation in Emigration Desires:In 2024, significant differences in migration desires are observed across MENA. Tunisia leads with 46% of its population considering migration, followed by Jordan at 42% and Lebanon at 38%. In Morocco, 35% express similar intentions, compared to 25% in Palestine and 22% in Mauritania. Kuwait, noted for its economic stability, has the lowest emigration desire at just 16%. Most countries have seen stable levels over the past two years, with a notable exception being Jordan, which experienced a six-percentage-point decrease.
- Migration Trends:Tunisia’s current migration desire (46%) is the highest ever recorded by Arab Barometer, up from 22% in 2011. Morocco (35%) and Lebanon’s (38%) levels are consistent with those from 2012, while Kuwait (16%) and Palestine (25%) show little change over the past 12 years.
- Demographic Influences: Younger MENA citizens and those with college education are more likely to consider migration, driven by their pursuit of better job prospects and opportunities. Gender has less impact on migration desires in most countries surveyed.
- Economic Motives:Economic dissatisfaction is a major driver behind emigration with potential MENA migrants often viewing their country’s economic situation more negatively compared to those who do not wish to leave. Economic factors drive migration most strongly in Jordan (90%) and Tunisia (89%), followed by overwhelming majorities in Lebanon (72%) and Mauritania (69%). In Palestine, 57% of potential migrants cite economic reasons, whereas fewer do so in Morocco (45%) and Kuwait (29%).
- Security and Political factors:While economic factors predominantly drive emigration, security and political issues also play a notable role, particularly in Lebanon. Security concerns, heightened by recent tensions between Hezbollah and Israel, drive 27% of potential migrants in Lebanon to consider leaving. Additionally, political issues and corruption significantly impact migration decisions, motivating 23% and 24% of potential Lebanese migrants, respectively. In contrast, political issues and corruption are less common in other surveyed MENA countries, where no more than one-in-six cite similar reasons.
- Educational Opportunities:In Kuwait, the pursuit of better educational opportunities is a major driver for migration, with 56% of those considering leaving citing this as their primary reason. This contrasts with other surveyed countries, where education is the main motive for no more than one-fifth of potential migrants.
- Top Migration Destinations: North America, particularly the United States and Canada, is the most popular destination among potential migrants in MENA, followed by Western European countries and the Gulf region. Preferences vary based on linguistic and cultural connections, with countries historically linked to former colonial powers often preferring destinations where diaspora communities already exist.
- Undocumented Migration:While most potential migrants prefer to leave with proper documentation, a significant number in the MENA region are open to undocumented migration. In Morocco, 53% of potential migrants would consider it, followed by 44% in Mauritania, 42% in Tunisia, and 30% in Palestine. Fewer citizens considering migration in Jordan (19%) and Lebanon (17%) share this view. Those with lower education levels and incomes are more likely to consider migrating without required papers. Notably, Mauritania has seen a significant rise in willingness among prospective emigrants to leave without necessary documents, doubling from 22% in 2022 to 44% in 2024. This increase, especially among youth (51% vs. 41% of older Mauritanians), highlights growing internal struggles and difficulties in obtaining legal migration papers.
The findings are based on seven nationally representative surveys conducted across MENA from 2023-2024, with a margin of error between ±2 and ±3 percentage points in each country. The results underscore that migration remains a viable option for many in MENA, especially among younger and better-educated citizens seeking a better life abroad.
For detailed insights, read the full report.
Please credit Arab Barometer in any dissemination.
ENDS //
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