The recent Gaza war and the ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel – after 470 days of bombing, killing, destruction, and displacement – mark a pivotal moment in the history of the Palestinian cause and the future of the Palestinian people, who aspire to achieve national unity and end their century-long suffering.
Today, national investment in the Gaza war and its outcomes represents the most pressing challenge for all Palestinian parties. While the ceasefire provides a reprieve for Gaza’s residents, the lack of consensus on post-war governance, combined with the complexities of reconstruction, and potential foreign interventions, casts doubt and uncertainty over the region’s future. Israel has sought – and continues to seek – to turn the recent battle into an opportunity to “correct the historical mistake” of previous Israeli governments of failing to complete the displacement and removal of the Palestinian presence from historic Palestine. This is because the demographic balance in historic Palestine favors Palestinians, threatening the stability and growth of the Zionist project, according to warnings from Israeli researchers in national security research centers over the past two decades. This demographic threat explains Israel’s brutal and fascist behavior, which aims to make Gaza uninhabitable, creating conditions that make displacement inevitable and a matter of time for Palestinians. Israel has systematically and deliberately targeted all vital civilian infrastructure, including hospitals, schools, roads, transportation networks, and utilities, to push Palestinians toward seeking individual escape due to the unbearable conditions imposed by Israel.
Palestinians find themselves as passive recipients of discussions about the post-war future of Gaza, divided by internal disputes that have weakened the collective Palestinian stance. Three crucial issues deteriorated before and during the war. The first is Palestinian representation, which suffers from clear duality: the world negotiates with Hamas on hostages and the ceasefire while engaging with the Palestinian Authority (PA) on political arrangements for Gaza. The second issue relates to Palestinian statehood, as Israel refuses any form of Palestinian territorial unity following the war. The third issue concerns the Palestinian national movement, which has suffered a severe blow in the collective Palestinian consciousness, as it has failed to provide a true model for enhancing citizens’ resilience in Gaza or achieving national cohesion among Palestinian communities over more than 15 months of war.
Gaza’s citizens observe their situation with deep pessimism, having almost lost faith in Palestinian political leadership and international actors in delivering a path to genuine national liberation and independence. Pessimism has become a defining characteristic of citizens living under harsh and miserable conditions, robbing them of emotional balance to envision their national future.
Despite varying opinions on the future governance of Gaza post-war and the expected interventions of foreign powers, including Israel, this paper aims to analyze the perspective of Palestinian citizens in Gaza regarding their political future in light of the war’s aftermath. It examines different political perspectives on governance in Palestinian territories and the feasibility of turning the current ordeal into a real opportunity to achieve full national independence.
This paper is based on a comprehensive review of literature and previous studies on the Palestinian future, as well as in-depth interviews with elites, writers, and intellectuals to explore their perspectives on this future.
General Background: The Neglected Issue of Governance in Gaza
The destruction caused by the recent war in Gaza has deepened existing crises, leading to major damage to the infrastructure as well as the social, economic, and political structures, making the future seem more uncertain and detached from the needs of Gaza’s residents. While Gaza stands at a strategic crossroads, its residents face a growing sense of helplessness and frustration due to their exclusion from any meaningful role in shaping their future, which seems to be planned by external actors far removed from them.
According to a 2023 survey by the Arab Barometer, over 75% of Gaza’s residents believe that the international community has failed to provide the necessary support to improve their conditions due to the absence of genuine efforts to resolve the crisis and the continuation of the blockade imposed for more than 15 years.
Politically, the gap between the people and both local and international leadership continues to widen. The internal scene in Gaza is deeply divided among Palestinian factions, leaving residents feeling like hostages to a division that obstructs any serious attempts at change. Meanwhile, Gazans feel excluded from political decision-making processes that determine their future. Many believe that their voices are ignored and that issues affecting them are marginalized in favor of external agendas that are focused solely on security and stability rather than addressing their humanitarian and economic needs.
Economically, the war has caused a total collapse of Gaza’s economy. Unemployment rates have reached unprecedented levels, exceeding 80% among youth, making employment opportunities virtually nonexistent. This economic crisis also reflects the widespread frustration and helplessness among residents, who find themselves trapped in a cycle of poverty and complete dependence on humanitarian aid.
Beyond the war’s direct effects, it is important to emphasize the deep crisis of trust existing between Palestinian citizens and their political system. This crisis shapes Palestinians’ vision and perceptions of Gaza’s future and has multiple causes, including:
- A Turbulent Political History: Since the Palestinian political division in 2007, Palestine has experienced an unprecedented phase of geographic and institutional fragmentation between the West Bank and Gaza. This division was not merely a temporary political split but evolved into a structural reality that weakened the Palestinian political system and deeply affected all aspects of daily life. Gaza became a completely isolated entity, leading to the emergence of two separate authorities, each with its own political and administrative agenda. This division eroded public trust, as many Palestinians felt that political leadership prioritized their internal conflicts over addressing national challenges. Over time, this situation became a tragic reality that reinforced doubts about the leadership’s ability to restore national unity and achieve shared goals.
- Erosion of Political Legitimacy: The absence of Palestinian elections since 2006 has dealt a severe blow to the concept of political legitimacy in Palestinian territories. Without any electoral process to reflect the people’s will, a widespread sense has grown among Palestinians that their political leadership no longer represents them. This has led to significant frustration among citizens, who view the political system as a tool for entrenching factional interests rather than serving the national interest. According to the 2024 Arab Barometer survey, 60% of Gaza’s residents expressed a lack of confidence in their political leadership. This high percentage reflects collective frustration and a sharp decline in trust in the system’s ability to meet public aspirations…
