What is happening across the board is that populations are losing much of their trust in political and religious elites.
Analysts have been scratching their heads over the results of a recent opinion survey on social, political and religious attitudes in the Arab world conducted by Arab Barometer, a Princeton University-based research network, and released by BBC News Arabic.
Much has been said in particular about the rise of the proportion of Arabs who view themselves as “not religious” — from 11% in 2012-2014 to 18% in 2019 — and the plummeting of trust in “religious leaders.” But gauging attitudes on religion in the Arab Muslim world on the basis of traditional polling techniques can be treacherous and potentially misleading. Considering the many variables that can inhibit people in the region from expressing their personal views on matters of faith, there is reason to be wary of hasty conclusions in this regard.
A more pertinent phenomenon, however, is the clear shift away from Islamist parties, whether in Sudan, Jordan, Morocco, Tunisia or Egypt. Support for Muslim Brotherhood-inspired movements since 2012 is estimated to have dropped by no less than a 20-25% margin.
Whether tested on not, Islamists are perceived as having failed to deliver solutions or even embody hope in the region’s dim horizons. Reality check. The perception of ineptitude and ideological rigidity has made Islamists a clearly less appealing alternative.
What is happening across the board is that populations are losing much of their trust in political and religious elites.
Michael Robbins, the director of Arab Barometer, concluded that “in the vast majority of countries surveyed, governments are not meeting the expectations of their citizens.”
Many Arab societies, including Tunisia, which is credited with a relatively successful democratic transition, are strongly committed to freedom but sceptical of whether fractious electoral democracy can bring economic prosperity or ensure security.
Amaney Jamal, co-founder and principal investigator of the Arab Barometer, says: “Citizens now fear that democracy might inherently cause more instability — we see this pattern certainly in Tunisia.”
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